1.5°C slipping away?
A growing number of companies have mapped out climate targets in line with global goals but may be unable to avoid consuming their sector’s share of the global budget if the economy takes too long to decarbonize at scale.
- If annual warming were to continue at its current 30-year average rate, long-term global warming would reach 1.5°C by 2030, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- We estimate listed companies’ remaining GHG emissions budget to be 35 Gt CO2e for a 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C and 112 Gt CO2e for a 50% likelihood of limiting warming to 2°C, as of March 31, 2025.
38 months
remaining at current rate to achieve +1.5°C
122 months
remaining at current rate to achieve +2.0°C
Total carbon budget remaining
Source: MSCI ESG Research, data as of March 31, 2025
Twelve percent of listed companies align with a 1.5°C pathway
Only 12% of listed companies are aligned with limiting average global temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels. Sixty-one percent project warming of more than 2°C (3.6°F), and nearly one-quarter would warm the planet by over 3.2°C (5.76°F).
Source: MSCI ESG Research, data as of March 31, 2025. Not index weighted.
More companies are setting science-based climate targets
As of March 31, 2025, 14% of listed companies had climate targets validated by the Science Based Targets (SBTi) initiative — up nearly five percentage points from a year earlier. The industrials sector leads in SBTi-validated targets, followed by consumer discretionary and IT.
Share of listed companies with climate targets by target type (%)
Source: MSCI ESG Research, data as of March 31, 2025